Petronet

Petronet from 140 to 130 in three sessions

Reliance

Will target be achieved today?

Allahabad bank

Allahabad bank. : previous close 124.15. This counter will crash to 119. Any rise sell April futures and gain 5 quick points

Trading Pitfalls

3 Common Trading Pitfalls -- Plus 6 Free Lessons
If your technical approach needs improvement, you are not alone. Our FREE report can help!

By Elliott Wave International

Long-term trading success depends on more than the right trading method: adequate capitalization, money management skills and emotional discipline are also vital.

Yet it isn't always easy to put your finger on which elements of trading success may cause you to struggle in the markets. Elliott Wave Junctures editor Jeffrey Kennedy shares some of his insights on what often gets in the way of trading success.

1. Inability to Admit Failure
"Have you ever held on to a losing position, because you 'felt' that the market was going to come back in your favor? This behavior is the 'Inability to Admit Failure.' No one likes being wrong, and for traders, being wrong usually costs money. What I find interesting is that many of us would rather lose money than admit failure. I now know that being wrong is much less expensive than being hopeful."

2. Fear of Missing the Party
"This one is responsible for more losing trades than any other. Besides encouraging overtrading, this pitfall also causes you to get in too early. How many of us have gone short after a five-wave rally just to watch wave five extend?

The solution is to use a time filter, which is a fancy way of saying, wait a few bars before you start to dance. If a trade is worth taking, waiting for prices to confirm your analysis will not affect your profit that much. I would much rather miss an opportunity than suffer a loss, because there will always be another opportunity."

3. Systems Junkie
"My own biggest, baddest emotional monster was being the 'Systems Junkie.' Early in my career, I believed that I could make my millions if I had just the right system. I bought every newsletter, book and tape series that I could find. None of them worked.

I even went as far as becoming a professional analyst -- guaranteed success, or so I thought. Well, it didn't guarantee anything really. Analysis and trading are two separate skills; one is a skill of observation, the other is a skill of emotional control. Being an expert auto mechanic does not mean you can drive like an expert, much less win the Daytona 500."

It isn't easy to come to terms with our mistakes, yet, if you are serious about improving the quality of your trades, this is a vital step!

What is one of the biggest obstacles to successful trading? According to Kennedy, it is lack of patience:

"Impatience stems more from a sense of not wanting to miss anything. And because we're afraid of missing the next big move, or perhaps because we want to pick up some lost ground, we act on less-than-ideal trade setups.

Another reason traders lack patience is boredom... as traders wait for these "textbook" Elliott wave patterns and ideal, high-confidence trade setups to occur, boredom sets in. Too often, we get itchy fingers and want to trade any chart pattern that comes along that looks even remotely like a high-confidence trade setup.

The first step in overcoming impatience is to consciously define the minimum requirements of an acceptable trade setup and vow to accept nothing less. Next, feel comfortable in knowing that the markets will be around tomorrow, next week, next year and beyond, so there is plenty of time to wait for the ideal opportunity. Remember, trading is not a race, and over-trading does little to improve your bottom line."

Kennedy's advice on how to be patient is another important step towards improving the quality of your trades.

---

If you are ready for the next steps on how to become a more successful technical trader, get Jeffrey Kennedy's free report, 6 Lessons to Help You Spot Trading Opportunities in Any Market. Jeffrey has taught thousands how to improve their trading through his online courses, his international speaking engagements, and in his new service Elliott Wave Junctures. This free report includes 6 different lessons that you can apply to your charts immediately. Learn how to spot and act on trading opportunities in the markets you follow, starting now! Access Your Free Report Now >>

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline 3 Common Trading Pitfalls -- Plus 6 Free Lessons. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

LT

Larsen-toubro :1450 put from 42 to 100 in two sessions. Enjoyed?

Larsen and Toubro

LT:
No support upto 1350.
Previous close 1399.
Any rise, buy 1450 puts for this counter.....
Expecting this counter to crash to 1350 soon....
Trading for March series puts only......

Petronet- Enjoy the fall!

Petronet LNG:
Previous close 139.
Any rise, sell this counter..
Will crash to 134. No ifs and buts..........
A strong and final support exists at 134. 
Will take call accordingly at that level.
For now concentrating on these 5 points, Sell March futures accordingly...

Tcs

Tcs -  will it break 1545? If yes, buy 1600 put and take a stop loss of 1555 in the underlying

Reliance -something fishy

Reliance industries : will it hold 805? Previous close 812. Any trade below 802, sell this counter's March futures or buy 840 put. Take a stop loss of 812. Maintaining a target of 760 in the coming days. Plz respect the level.

U.S. Stocks: Today's Market Sentiment Starkly Contrasts 2009's

U.S. Stocks: Today's Market Sentiment Starkly Contrasts 2009's
How extreme sentiment can signal a trend ready for change

By Elliott Wave International

In March 2009, stock prices were at a 12-year low, and the Dow Industrials were down 54% from the 2007 peak.

You'd have needed to search far and wide to find someone calling for a rebound. Most investors feared that more of the same was ahead for stocks.

But on the very day the Dow hit the 6,547 price low (March 9, 2009), a Wall Street Journal headline read:

Dow 5000? There's a Case for It

At the time, a closely watched sentiment index had also reached an all-time low at 2% bulls.

Even so: Just days before stocks bottomed, Bob Prechter said this to subscribers:

I recommend covering our short position at today's close. ... Probabilities for further decline immediately ahead have shifted. ... The market is compressed, and when it finds a bottom and rallies, it will be sharp and scary for anyone who is short.

The Elliott Wave Theorist, February 2009

Indeed, the market did rally. Granted, the duration of the uptrend has lasted longer than anticipated. Yet that has led to extreme investor complacency. Look at this chart from the Jan. 23 Financial Forecast Short Term Update (labels removed):

As you probably know, the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, is a measure of investor fear (or the lack thereof). You can see on the chart how fearful investors were at the end of 2008 and leading up to the March 2009 low. That's a stark contrast to the lack of fear you see above. Investors are as comfortable with stocks as they were around the Dow's 2007 all-time high.

A recent headline, quoting the head of JPMorgan Chase, is indicative of the broadly optimistic sentiment.

US Stocks At 'Very Good Prices'

CNBC, Jan. 24

Is this the time to tap into the current uptrend, or should you separate yourself from the crowd in anticipation of a turn? Well, the Jan. 23 Short Term Update referenced the strong emotions that attend the end of long market trends and then noted:

It's difficult to lean against the crowd and doing so doesn't automatically mean that you'll be right. There are never guarantees. But the odds are in your favor.

Please know that EWI does not recommend defying the crowd for its own sake. To be sure, a contrarian can get trampled during the strongest parts of bull markets, or mauled during the worst part of bear markets.

A prudent investor looks at the best available evidence before deciding how, when and if to act.

Be assured, dear reader: Your risk-free review will likely be one of the most important investments you make at this juncture.

To that end, EWI offers you a no-obligation education in Elliott Wave analysis. See below for details.

---

Learn the Why, What and How of Elliott Wave Analysis The Elliott Wave Crash Course is a series of three FREE videos that demolishes the widely held notion that news drives the markets. Each video will provide a basis for using Elliott wave analysis in your own trading and investing decisions. Watch the Elliott Wave Video Crash Course now >>

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline U.S. Stocks: Today's Market Sentiment Starkly Contrasts 2009's. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Trading- Keep it simple silly!

Above is the daily chart of Nifty spot......
After breaking the trend line at 5930, it practically never recovered....
I was mentioning again and again, that biggies have already exited midcaps and small caps.....
It was the turn of Nifty next.... 
All the mood was positive, no bad news in the air, world indices are propping up, but what happened to our markets......
A simple trend line said it all.............." The rally was over for the short and medium term"
I was repeatedly posting charts of bank nifty, world indices indicating they have reached tops....
We might have traded very few counters, but got enormous returns... 
This time, we had concentrated on options...."puts" 
The result you have already seen.......

One more thing I would like to mention here....
I was getting queries that most of the traders pay heavy brokerage trading options and hence they avoid it.....
But now a days, trading platforms like ZERODHA are providing a very low brokerage and very much suitable for active traders like us...... I am not promoting it. There may be other platforms too which provide this type of service. But I personally trade in ZERODHA.

Happy Tradings......

Book profits

Book profits in relcapital, relinfra, jswsteel

EWI

The Tortoise is About to Cross the Financial Finish Line
Slow and safe wins the race

By Elliott Wave International

Financial historians will eventually describe the past 30 years as a time when investors embraced epic levels of financial risk.

Stock mutual funds are now so popular that they outnumber stocks. Bond, real estate and other types of mutual funds also exploded in number. Many financial instruments -- such as derivatives -- are so complex that you need an advanced degree in mathematics to grasp how they function.

So in this Great Asset Mania, to sock away money in a cash-equivalent account seems an unlikely way to win the financial race.

But in truth, the tortoise really has outpaced the hare for the past dozen years.

Since 2000, the S&P 500 has registered two plunges of more than 50 percent and several of more than 10 percent, leaving this index slightly lower today than it was 12 years ago.

'Buy-and-hold investors have little to show for the roller-coaster ups and downs, aside from a nauseous gut,' says [the chairman of a capital firm].

ABC News, Aug. 2, 2012

It's true that a Treasury-bill account yields next to nothing. But at this financial juncture, the well-known saying of humorist Will Rogers has never been more relevant: "I am more concerned with the return of my money than the return on my money."

Robert Prechter says that embracing financial risk because interest rates are low can be a snare.

Because interest rates are 'too low,' investors claim that they have 'no choice' but to invest in something with more 'upside potential.' Ironically but obviously necessarily, the last major interest-rate cycle was perfectly aligned to convince people to do the wrong thing. Two decades ago, when rates were high, people insisted that stocks were not worth buying. Now that rates are low, they insist that cash is not worth holding. It's a psychological trap keeping investors from doing the right thing: buying stocks at the bottom (when rates were high) and selling them at the top (when rates are low).

Conquer the Crash, second edition, pp. 161-162

There is a flip side to decades of epic financial risk:

I'm convinced that by the end of this decade people are going to feel even more negative towards stocks than they did in the '40s. They'll tell their children and grandchildren not to touch the stock market.

Robert Prechter, June 2010 interview

Get ready for the market changes ahead and start investing independently.

---

Learn to Think Independently You'll get some of the most groundbreaking and eye-opening reports ever published in Elliott Wave International's 30-year history; you'll also get new analysis, forecasts and commentary to help you think independently in today's tumultuous market. Download Your Free 50-Page Independent Investor eBook Now >>

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline The Tortoise is About to Cross the Financial Finish Line. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Kotak Bank- Will it survive the scare????

Kotak Bank:
Do you remember this counter????
We are short from 690 levels... it never touched that level....
Previous close 638.
Last and final hope for this counter is 635.
Once breaks, it will be in free fall mode.....
Immediate target will be 595.
If stock breaks 635, Sell March futures accordingly or buy 660 puts....... choice is yours...
Will be maintaining a stop loss of 645

HDFC Bank- At crucial and final support

HDFC Bank:
Previous close 631.
Will it break 625???
Last and final support exists at 625.
If breaks, buy 660 put or Sell March futures accordingly and take a small stop loss of 632 in underlying.
Will be repeating the trades with the same level if required....

RelInfra- Dangerously placed

Relinfra- looking weak
415 is the last hope for this counter.
Previous close 420.
If breaks 415, buy 440 puts for this counter and relax for this series........
If trades below 415, it will be in free fall mode with a target of 350 - 330 in the coming one month...

Lupin- At our levels again

Lupin Labs:
Previous close 609.
Remember only one level for this counter.....615.
All we need is that this counter should cross this level...
This is last and final hurdle for this counter.
Once crosses 615, take a small stop loss of 609 and go long.....
Buy 600 call for this counter.
Maintaining a target of 650-660 in the coming days....

JSW Steel- Never recovered

JSW Steel....
Still bearish in this counter...
Yes, we are still holding 760 puts for this counter.
Any trades below 695, add more lots of 760 put...
For fresh entrants below 695 buy 760 puts and take a small stop loss of 710 in the underlying.
It will be a free fall below that level....

Waiting for meaningful trades........

Yes, a lot of things were happening in this week's trade. 
The markets are now trading on day to day basis....
Carrying positions is not making any sense.
The counters which entered our levels are also trading aggressively.
Take Titan and Zeel in this issue....
As you know, I prefer positional trades to intraday,  waiting for good setups to trade.....

Greece: A Gathering Storm Threatens Europe and America

By Elliott Wave International/the Socionomics Institute

The similarities between Greece and pre-WWII Germany are striking.

• Nazi salutes.
• Praise for Adolf Hitler.
• Swastika-like banners.

Now, before you write off this warning as a run-of-the-mill, Nazi-name-dropping scare tactic, consider this recent report from the Socionomics Institute, a U.S.-based think tank that studies global trends in social mood. Here's an excerpt from the Institute's February publication of The Socionomist.

A rising political party known as Golden Dawn is resurrecting such practices, all hallmarks of Hitler's Third Reich, in modern-day Greece, which has suffered a dramatic, five-year stock market decline.

From 1927 to 1932, Germany suffered a disastrous stock market decline, falling 73% over five years. Six million people were unemployed, and the government was weak. Germany suffered outside financial pressure in the form of reparations required by the Versailles Treaty and consequences of its involvement in World War I.

Adolf Hitler argued that the German government betrayed its people by signing the Versailles Treaty. He promised that if he were elected, the nation would stop paying the reparations. The position appealed to the German people's anger and helped the Nazi leader become chancellor in January 1933.

Modern-day Greece has experienced an even larger five-year decline than 1920s-1930s Germany did, falling 88% since 2007, and the country has suffered a debt crisis. As a condition for bailouts aimed at helping Greece recover, the European Union has imposed tough austerity measures. The Greek government has implemented the measures. Meanwhile, the deepening negative social mood has fueled protests against them.

Nikos Zydakis, editor of the daily newspaper Kathimerini, says Greece is in an economic depression like that experienced by Germany in the 1930s. More than 90% of Greek households have experienced income reductions, with the average drop 38%. Unemployment in Greece now stands at a record 26.8% and is nearly 60% among Greece's young adults. In November the Greek Parliament imposed tax hikes and spending cuts demanded by creditors. Supermarket sales in the country declined by 500 million euros ($669 million) last year, and people are burning wood because the price of electricity has risen and taxes on heating oil have increased.

"History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme," goes an old saying attributed to American author Mark Twain. And new research from the Socionomics Institute sees a disturbing pattern of rhymes between modern-day Greece and pre-WWII Germany.

To be sure, market and political developments in Greece will have a significant impact on the future of Europe, the Americas and beyond.

---

The Socionomics Institute is an independent research firm devoted to the study of social mood and social action. As a partner to the world's largest market forecasting firm, Elliott Wave International, the Institute puts the most important developing social trends around the world into context with Robert Prechter's socionomic theory, which posits that social mood drives social action (not the other way around). Read the rest the Institute's new February report to learn more about the developing threats out of Greece. The full report is available for free as part of a special promotion run by the Institute with EWI. Follow this link to read the full February issue of The Socionomist (a $19 value) - for free.

[Video] Bollinger Band Basics

[Video] Bollinger Band Basics Senior Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy shows you how these volatility indicators support pattern recognition By Elliott Wave International Watch this chart-based video lesson to see how Elliott Wave Junctures Editor Jeffrey Kennedy uses Bollinger bands to spot a high-confidence setup in Bank of America. Read more.

Avoid herd mentality......

Do you know where these markets are heading???????
There is no bad news in the market. 
Everything is looking rosy.....
Dow making new highs and the world markets are cheering it.
Below are the weekly charts of some of the major indices.
Have a look at them carefully and decide which way you want to be..............

Nasdaq Daily Chart

S&P Weekly Chart

FTSE Weekly Chart

DAX Weekly Chart

ZEEL

ZEEL : call not entered the level mentioned. Wait for the trade

ZEEL - will it survive?

ZEEL : previous close 217. Remember only two levels for this counter. 214 and 217. If breaks 214 short this counter and take a small stop loss of 217. Trade March futures accordingly. Repeat trades if required.

Wipro- will it break out this time???

WIPRO Ltd
March Futures previous close 435.
This counter will zoom to 440.
Will it surpass this level this time???
This is the last and final hurdle for the counter.
If breaks and trades positively, we will maintaining an ambitious target of 500 with a stop loss of 430.
In the meantime, concentrate on March 420 call and buy it.

JP Associates

JP Associates Ltd
For now a last and strong support exists at 68.
Previous close 70.5.
Buy this counter with a stop loss of 68.
Catch March Futures accordingly.

HDFC Bank

HDFC Bank: 
Previous close 633.
Remember only one level for this counter 622.
Buy and hold longs in this counter with the stop loss of 622.
Will be catching March futures accordingly. 
Please respect the levels. 
Need not to hold longs below the level of 620

Sun TV

Sun TV : Call not entered yet. Levels remain same.....

Trade with sense

Nothing has changed over night. Pull back in the market is a natural phenomena. That’s what happening now. Any rise in the nifty we will be looking for shorting opportunity. Any rise it will be good opportunity to short jswsteel, relcapital, relinfra. For today I am issuing some buy calls respecting the counter supports.

Suntv

Sun TV March futures cmp 430. Wait for this counter to trade below 427. If trades, short it with a small stop loss of 430

Short these counters

any rise we will be shorting these counters. JSW steel, relinfra, relcapital, PFC and HCL Tech

Apollo tyres

Sell Apollo tyres March futures at cmp 84. Tgt 81